Caribbean Tourism Report Q3 2011

Positive Start To 2011 Initial data released by the Caribbean Tourism Organisation (CTO) indicates that the Caribbean tourism industry got off to a good start in 2011, with most countries reporting good growth levels. Some of these were back to pre-2008 levels, boding well for the rest of the season. Cuba performed particularly strongly, with arrivals between January and April growing by 11.9% year-on-year (y-o-y). Curaçao, which became an independent state in October 2010, also enjoyed strong arrivals growth of 11.6% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2011.
Of the 18 countries that had reported arrivals data by June 2011, all but four of posted arrivals growth. Those that experienced declines were Dominica (5.6%), St Lucia (1.1%), Suriname (5.0%) and the US Virgin Islands (3.9%). All these countries experienced declines in 2010, indicating that they are lagging behind the growth trend that is becoming well established in other parts of the Caribbean. While the arrivals data reflects the traditional high season in the Caribbean, BMI is encouraged that such strong growth figures are beginning to return and expects the growth trend to continue throughout the year.
Focus On Barbados
Barbados is a small island to the west of the eastern Caribbean, with its closest neighbours being St Vincent and the Grenadines and Trinidad and Tobago. It is a very popular tourist destination due to its location close to the South American continent and its position largely outside the hurricane belt, meaning it can attract tourism even during the June-November hurricane season. In 2010, Barbados posted tourist arrivals growth of 2.6% y-o-y, which was a respectable performance. In the first four months of 2011 the growth rate surged to 9.9% y-o-y, one of the strongest recoveries in the region.
Low-Cost Airline Launched
In a sign that investment is returning to the reviving Caribbean tourism industry, Barbados-based airline REDjet began operations in May 2011 as the region’s first low-cost airline. The airline is owned by US company Airone Holdings and operates two McDonnell Douglas MD-82 aircraft. The new airline operates four routes with 18 flights per week: Barbados-Trinidad, Barbados-Guyana, Barbados-Jamaica and Trinidad-Jamaica. REDjet’s ticket prices are considerably below those of its regional rivals, LIAT and Caribbean Airlines, and are likely to spark competition in the traditionally high-cost region. This will put particular pressure on Caribbean Airlines, which is still incorporating Air Jamaica, which it bought in May 2010.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Caribbean Tourism SWOT 6
Caribbean Political SWOT 6
Caribbean Economic SWOT 7
Caribbean Business Environment SWOT 7
Industry Forecast Scenario 8
Arrivals And Accommodation 8
Table: Arrivals And Accommodation Data, 2007-2015 8
Expenditure 9
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2007-2015 9
Inbound Tourism 9
Table: Tourist Stopover Arrivals, January-April 2011 9
Table: Tourist Stopover Arrivals, 2010 10
Table: Tourism On Individual Islands, 2007-2015 ('000, unless stated) 11
Focus: Barbados 14
Market Overview – Travel 15
Commercial Airlines 15
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 17
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) 17
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) 20
Market Overview – Hospitality 22
Cruise Industry 22
Table: Cruise Passenger Arrivals, 2009-2010 22
Accommodation 23
Luxury Hotels 24
Global Assumptions, Q311 25
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 25
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 26
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) 26
Developed States 27
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 28
Emerging Markets 29
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 30
Consensus Forecasts 31
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) 31
Company Profiles 32
Air Jamaica (Caribbean Airlines-Air Jamaica Transition Ltd) 32
Royal Caribbean Cruises 34
Sol Meliá 35
BMI Methodology 36
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 36
Tourism Industry 36
Sources 37
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