China livestock Market Review & Outlook Proposal 2009/2010

Research Background
China’s breeding industry had big changes in 2009, of which supply of live pigs turned from a shortage to a surplus, from high profits to losses, prices have dropped sharply compared the same period of last year. Broiler breeding also turned from a high profit in 2008 to a low profit and some losses. Due to inadequate adjustment in prior period, layers breeding continued the loss momentum in 2008, resulting in laying hens stock on hand continued to decline. Beef cattle breeding recovered in the third quarter, cow stock in the main producing areas began to pick up and stop declining. Sheep stock continued to decline.

At the policy level, the state continued to subsidize investment and construction of standard and large-scale farms, issued the “Regulation Plan (Provisional) on Preventing Excessive Price Down of Live Pigs”, and for the first time initiated a response mechanism when the market reached warning point, due to the influence of H1N1 influenza, suspended imports of pork products from H1N1 influenza epidemic areas, and required all imported pork must pass the H1N1 detection. The Commerce Ministry of China conducted an anti-dumping investigation to US chicken, and the US market opened up to China’s chicken products.

Regarding breeding, animal diseases remained serious in 2009, and frequently lead to early slaughter and selling of live pigs and chickens, as well as abnormal elimination of laying hens. But sow stock is still in surplus, while many small hatcheries of broilers and layers suffered heavy losses, an increase of market variables.
Regarding slaughter, the construction of large-scale pig and chicken slaughtering and processing enterprises are continued throughout the country, these enterprises are basically in the north of the Yangtze River. Despite the ban on live poultry trade in South China, local chicken slaughtering facilities are still relatively lacking.
China’s corn reduced production in 2009, which will pull corn prices up even through supply is still adequate, thus increasing production cost of breeding industry.
Breeding and slaughtering industries had drastic changes in 2009, BOABC will carry out follow-up analysis in this report, striving to make a clear development direction and provide references for decision-making.


Report Highlights

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Table of Contents
Chap 1 External Environment 1
1.1 Macro Economic and Impacts 1
1.1.1 Employment and Income Growth 1
1.1.2 Food Expenditure 1
1.1.3 Urbanization 1
1.2 Macro Policies and Impacts 2
1.2.1 Document No.1 of 2009 2
1.2.2 State council’s executive meeting: Support the development of livestock industry 2
1.2.3 Ministry of agriculture: foreign investment introduction must be in favor of Chinese farmers 2
1.2.4 Supply policy 3
1.2.5 State-owned Company re-dominate livestock products processing industry 3
1.2.6 Information statistics system 3
1.2.7 Advantageous Regional Layout of china’s beef cattle, sheep, milk cow and pig 3
1.2.8 Construction of quality supervision station of agriculture products 4
1.2.9 Give out consume subsidy to low income group 4
1.3 Epidemics Prevention System and Impacts 4
1.3.1 Construction of Animal Epidemic Prevention System 4
1.3.2 Debut of official vet 4
1.4 Development and impact of slaughter industry 5
1.4.1 Appointed slaughter of flocks and herds 5
1.4.2 Tracing System of Quality of Pork 5
1.4.3 Slaughterhouses classification 5
1.4.4 Plan on hog slaughtering industry (2010-2015) 5
1.4.5 Other Companies Engage in Breeding 5
1.5 Development of Feed Industry and Impacts 6
1.6 International Trade of Animal Products and Impacts 6
Chap 2 China Profile 7
2.1 Supply of Animal Products in 2009 7
Fig 1.1, Output of Pork, Beef, Mutton, Poultry Meat and Poultry Eggs from 2000-2010 7
2.2 Demand for Animal Products in 2009 7
Fig 1.2, Total Consumption of Pork, Beef, Mutton, Poultry Meat and Poultry Eggs from 2000-2010 8
2.3 Livestock Slaughter and Processing in 2009 8
Fig 1.3, Meat Production of Scaled Slaughterhouses from 2001-2009 8
2.4 Price Level of Animal Products in 2009 9
Fig 1.4, Trend of Retail Price of Animal Products from 2000-2010 9
Fig 1.5, Trend of Weighed Price of Animal Products from 2000-2010 10
2.5 Profits of China Animal Farming in 2009 10
2.6 Changes of Animal Farming Scale in 2009 10
2.7 International Trade of Animal Products in 2009 10
Fig 1.6, China Animal Products Import, 2000-2010 11
Fig 1.7, China Animal Products Export, 2000-2010 11
Chap 3 Pork Market 12
3.1 Global Pork Output in 2009 12
3.2 Supporting Policy to Hog Farming 12
3.2.1 Fattening Hogs and Insurance 12
3.2.2 Early-warning System of Hog Farming 12
3.2.3 Establishment and operation of Pork Reserve System 12
3.2.4 Establishment of pig exchange 12
3.3 Pork Supply 13
3.3.1 Breeding Hog Inventory in 2009 13
Fig 3.1, China Sow Inventory from 2000-2010 13
3.3.2 Hog Inventory & Crop and Pork Production in 2009 13
Fig 3.2, China Hog Inventory from 2000-2010 14
Fig 3.3, China Hog Crop from 2000-2010 14
Fig 3.4, China Pork Output from 2000-2010 15
Fig 3.5, Regional Structure of Hog Crop in 2009 15
3.3.3 Hog Farming Scale in 2009 15
Fig 3.6, Scale Structure of Hog Slaughtering from 2001-2009 16
Fig 3.7, Scale Structure of Hog Farms in 2009 16
3.3.4 Hog Epidemics in 2009 16
3.3.5 Ractopamine pork in 2009 17
3.3.6 Outlook of Pork Supply in 2010 17
3.4 Hog Farming Profits 18
3.4.1 Hog Farming Cost in 2009 18
Fig 3.8, Structure of Hog Farming Cost from 2008-2010 18
3.4.2 Live Hog Price in 2009 18
Fig 3.9, Monthly Live Hog Price from 2005-2009 19
3.4.3 Profit of Hog Farming in 2009 19
3.4.4 Forecast of Hog Farming Profit in 2010 19
3.5 Hog Slaughter and Processing 19
3.5.1 Policy on Hog Slaughter and Processing in 2009 19
3.5.2 Structure of Hog Slaughterhouses in 2009 19
Fig 3.10, Quantity Structure of Slaughterhouses by Capacity in 2009 20
3.5.3 Hog Slaughter Capacity in 2009 20
Fig 3.11, Capacity Structure of Hog Slaughterhouses in 2009 21
3.5.4 Hog Slaughtering in 2009 21
Fig 3.12, Structure of Slaughtering Volume of Hog Slaughterhouses in 2009 21
3.5.5 Profit of Hog Slaughtering Industry in 2009 22
3.5.6 Forecast of Hog Slaughtering Industry in 2010 22
3.6 Pork Consumption 22
3.6.1 Pork Consumption Volume in 2009 22
3.6.2 Structure of Urban and Rural Consumption of Pork in 2009 22
3.6.3 Structure of Pork Consumption of Different Channels in 2009 22
3.6.4 Structure of Pork Consumption of Different Product Style in 2009 22
3.6.5 Price Level of Pork in 2009 23
Fig 3.13, Monthly Retail Price of Pork from 2005-2009 23
3.6.6 Influence of H1N1 23
3.7 Pork Trade 23
3.7.1 Policy on Pork Trade in 2009 23
3.7.2 Pork Export in 2009 23
Fig 3.14, China Pork Import & Export from 2000-2009 24
3.7.3 Import of Pork in 2009 24
3.8 Outlook of Pork Market in 2010 24
3.8.1 Hog Farming Policy 24
3.8.2 Hog Inventory and Slaughter 24
3.8.3 Pork Production 24
3.8.4 Pork Consumption 24
3.8.5 Pork Trade 25
3.8.6 Pork Price 25
Chapter 4 Poultry Meat Market 26
4.1 Global Poultry Meat Output in 2009 26
4.2 Supporting Policy to Meat Poultry Farming 26
4.3 General Status of Meat Poultry Farming 26
4.3.1 Inventory and Slaughtering of Meat Poultry in 2009 26
Fig 4.1, China Poultry Crop from 2000-2010 26
4.3.2 Poultry Meat Production in 2009 26
Fig 4.2, China Poultry Meat Production from 2000-2010 27
Fig 4.3, Structure of Poultry Meat Producing Regions in 2009 27
4.3.3 Structure of Meat Poultry Farming in 2009 27
4.4 Chicken Meat Supply 28
4.4.1 Inventory of Breeding Chickens in 2009 28
4.4.2 Inventory and Crop of Broilers and Chicken Meat Production in 2009 28
Fig 4.4, Structure of Chicken Meat Producing Regions in 2009 28
4.4.3 Broiler Farming Scale in 2009 28
Fig 4.5, China Broiler Crop Structure by Farm Size from 2000-2009 29
Fig 4.6, Structure of Broiler Farming Scales in 2009 29
4.4.4 Broiler Farming Technology in 2009 29
4.4.5 Broiler Epidemics in 2009 29
4.5 Broiler Farming Profit 30
4.5.1 Cost of Broiler Farming in 2009 30
Fig 4.7, Structure of Broiler Farming Costs in 2008-2010 30
4.5.2 Live Broiler Price in 2009 30
4.5.3 Profit of Broiler Farming in 2009 30
4.5.4 Outlook of Broiler Farming Profit in 2010 30
4.6 Status of Broiler Slaughter and Processing Industry 31
4.6.1 Policy on Broiler Slaughter and Processing in 2009 31
4.6.2 Structure of Broiler Slaughter and Processing Enterprises in 2009 31
4.6.3 Structure of Processed Chicken Meat Products in 2009 31
4.6.4 Broiler Slaughter Capacity and Slaughter Amount in 2009 31
4.6.5 Outlook of Broiler Slaughter Industry in 2010 31
4.7 Poultry Meat Consumption 32
4.7.1 Poultry Meat Consumption in 2009 32
4.7.2 Urban and Rural Structure of Poultry Meat Consumption in 2009 32
4.7.3 Structure of Poultry Meat Consumption through Different Channels in 2009 32
4.7.4 Poultry Meat Price in 2009 32
Fig 4.8, Retail Price of Dressed Chicken from 2005-2009 32
4.8 Poultry Meat Trade 33
4.8.1 Policy on Poultry Meat Trade in 2009 33
4.8.2 Poultry Meat Export in 2009 33
Fig 4.9, China Chicken Meat and Edible Offal Import & Export from 2000-2009 33
4.8.3 Poultry Meat Import in 2009 33
4.9 Outlook of Meat Poultry Market in 2010 34
4.9.1 Policy on Meat Poultry Farming 34
4.9.2 Inventory and Crop of Meat Poultry 34
4.9.3 Production of Meat Poultry 34
4.9.4 Consumption of Poultry Meat 34
4.9.5 Poultry Meat Trade 34
4.9.6 Price of Poultry Meat 34
Chapter 5 Poultry Egg Market 35
5.1 Global Egg Output in 2009 35
5.2 Supporting Policy to Egg Poultry Farming 35
5.3 General Situation of Egg Poultry Farming 35
5.3.1 Inventory and Structure of Egg Poultry in 2009 35
5.3.2 Production and Structure of Poultry Eggs in 2009 35
Fig 5.1, China Poultry Eggs Output from 2000-2010 36
5.4 Supply of Chicken Eggs 36
5.4.1 Inventory of Breeding Layers in 2009 36
5.4.2 Layer Inventory and Egg Output in 2009 36
Fig 5.2, Regional Structure of Chicken Egg Production of Scaled Layer Farms in 2009 37
5.4.3 Layer Farm Size in 2009 37
Fig5.3, Structure of Scales of Layer Farming from 2000- 2009 37
Fig 5.4, Structure of Scales of Layer Farming in 2009 38
5.4.4 Layer Farming Enterprises in 2009 38
5.4.5 Epidemics of Layers in 2009 38
5.5 Layer Farming Profit 38
5.5.1 Layer Farming Cost in 2009 38
Fig 5.5, Structure of Layer Farming Cost from 2008-2010 39
5.5.2 Farmers’ Price of Eggs in 2009 39
5.5.3 Profit Margin of Layer Farming of Different Scales in 2009 39
5.5.4 Outlook of Layer Farming Profit in 2010 39
5.6 Poultry Egg Processing Industry 39
5.6.1 Policy on Poultry Egg Processing in 2009 39
5.6.2 Structure of Poultry Egg Processing Enterprises in 2009 40
5.6.3 Structure of Poultry Egg Products in 2009 40
5.6.4 Processing Capacity and Processing Volume of Poultry Eggs in 2009 40
5.6.5 Outlook of Poultry Egg Processing Industry in 2010 40
5.7 Primary Incidents of Poultry Egg Industry 40
5.7.1 Meat Association Advocates Futures of Poultry Eggs 40
5.8 Poultry Egg Consumption 41
5.8.1 Poultry Egg Consumption Volume in 2009 41
5.8.2 Urban and Rural Structure of Poultry Egg Consumption 41
5.8.3 Structure of Poultry Egg Consumption through Different Channels in 2009 41
5.8.4 Poultry Egg Price in 2009 41
Fig 5.6, Monthly Egg Retail Price of China from 2005-2009 42
5.9 China Egg Trade in 2009 42
5.9.1 Policy on Poultry Egg Trade in 2009 42
5.9.2 Export of Poultry Eggs in 2009 42
Fig 5.7, China Fresh Egg Export from 2000-2009 43
5.10 Outlook of Egg Poultry Market in 2010 43
5.10.1 Policy on Egg Poultry Farming 43
5.10.2 Egg Poultry Inventory 43
5.10.3 Poultry Egg Output 43
5.10.4 Poultry Egg Consumption 43
5.10.5 Poultry Egg Trade 43
5.10.6 Poultry Egg Price 44
Chapter 6 Beef Market 45
6.1 Global Beef Output in 2009 45
6.2 Supporting Policy for Beef Cattle Farming 45
6.3 Beef Supply 45
6.3.1 Inventory of Breeding Cattle in 2009 45
Fig 6.1, China Breeding Cow Inventory from 2002-2010 45
6.3.2 Inventory and Crop of Beef Cattle in 2009 46
Fig 6.2, Beef Production from 2000-2010 46
Fig 6.3, China Beef Cattle Crop form 2000-2010 46
Fig 6.4, Regional Structure of China Beef Cattle Crop in 2009 47
6.3.3 Scale of Beef Cattle Farming in 2009 47
Fig 6.5, Structure of Scales of Beef Cattle Farming from 2003- 2009 48
Fig 6.6, China Beef Cattle Crop by Farm Size in 2009 48
6.3.4 Beef Cattle Farming Enterprises in 2009 48
6.3.5 Beef Cattle Farming Technology in 2009 49
6.3.6 Epidemics of Beef Cattle in 2009 49
6.3.7 Beef Quality in 2009 49
6.4 Efficiency of Beef Cattle Farming 49
6.4.1 Cost of Beef Cattle Farming in 2009 49
Fig 6.7, China Cost of Beef Cattle Farming from 2008-2010 50
6.4.2 Price of Live Cattle in 2009 50
6.4.3 Profit of Beef Cattle Farming in 2009 50
6.4.4 Outlook of Beef Cattle Farming Profit in 2010 50
6.5 Slaughter and Processing of Beef Cattle 50
6.5.1 National Policy on Beef Cattle Slaughter and Processing in 2009 50
6.5.2 Structure of Beef Cattle Slaughter and Processing Enterprises in 2009 51
6.5.3 Structure of Beef Products in 2009 51
6.5.4 Beef Cattle Slaughter Capacity in 2009 51
6.6 Beef Consumption 51
6.6.1 Beef Consumption in 2009 51
6.6.2 Urban and Rural Structure of Beef Consumption in 2009 51
6.6.3 Structure of Beef Consumption through Different Channels in 2009 52
6.6.4 Beef Price in 2009 52
Fig 6.8, China Monthly Retail Price of Beef from 2005-2009 52
6.7 Beef Trade 52
6.7.1 Policy on Beef Trade in 2009 52
6.7.2 Beef Export in 2009 53
Fig 6.9, China Beef Import & Export from 2000-2009 53
6.7.3 Export of Live Cattle in 2009 53
6.7.4 Beef Import in 2009 53
6.8 Outlook of Beef Market in 2010 53
6.8.1 Policy on Beef Cattle Farming 53
6.8.2 Beef Cattle Inventory 54
6.8.3 Beef Output 54
6.8.4 Beef Consumption 54
6.8.5 Beef Trade 54
6.8.6 Beef Price 54
Chap 7 Mutton Market 55
7.1 Global Mutton Output in 2009 55
7.2 Policy on Mutton Sheep Farming 55
7.3 Mutton Supply 55
7.3.1 Inventory of Breeding Sheep in 2009 55
7.3.2 Inventory and Crop of Mutton Sheep in 2009 55
Fig 7.1, China Mutton Sheep Crop from 2000-2010 55
Fig 7.2, China Mutton Output from 2000-2010 56
Fig 7.3, Regional Structure of China Mutton Production in 2009 56
7.3.3 Scale of Mutton Sheep Farming in 2009 56
Fig 7.4, Scale Structure of China Mutton Sheep Farming from 2002-2009 57
Fig 7.5, Scale Structure of China Mutton Sheep Farming in 2009 57
7.3.4 Mutton Sheep Farming Enterprises in 2009 57
7.3.5 Mutton Sheep Farming Technology in 2009 58
7.3.6 Epidemics of Mutton Sheep in 2009 58
7.3.7 Quality of Mutton in 2009 58
7.4 Mutton Sheep Farming Profit 58
7.4.1 Farming Cost in 2009 58
Fig 7.6, Composition of Mutton Sheep Farming Cost from 2008- 2010 59
7.4.2 Live Sheep Price in 2009 59
7.4.3 Profit of Mutton Sheep Farming in 2009 59
7.4.4 Outlook of Farming Profit of Mutton Sheep in 2010 59
7.5 Slaughter and Processing of Mutton Sheep 60
7.5.1 National Policy on Slaughter and Processing Industry of Mutton Sheep in 2009 60
7.5.2 Structure of Mutton Sheep Slaughter and Processing in 2009 60
7.5.3 Structure of Mutton Products in 2009 60
7.5.4 Mutton Sheep Slaughter Capacity in 2009 60
7.5.5 Outlook of Mutton Sheep Processing Industry in 2010 60
7.6 Mutton Consumption 61
7.6.1 Mutton Consumption Volume in 2009 61
7.6.2 Urban and Rural Structure of Mutton Consumption in 2009 61
7.6.3 Structure of Mutton Consumption through Different Channels in 2009 61
7.6.4 China Mutton Price in 2009 61
Fig 7.7, China Monthly Retail Price of Mutton from 2005-2009 61
7.7 Mutton Trade 62
7.7.1 Policy on Mutton Trade in 2009 62
7.7.2 Mutton Export in 2009 62
Fig 7.8, China Mutton Import & Export from 2000-2009 62
7.7.3 Mutton Import in 2009 62
7.8 Outlook of Mutton Market in 2010 62
7.8.1 Policy on Mutton Sheep Farming 62
7.8.2 Mutton Sheep Inventory 63
7.8.3 Mutton Output 63
7.8.4 Mutton Consumption 63
7.8.5 Mutton Trade 63
7.8.6 Mutton Price 63
Appendix 64
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Table 1, China Pork Output by Province in 2009 64
Table 2, China Hog Inventory by Province from 2000-2009 65
Table 3, China Hog Crop by Province from 2000-2009 67
Table 4, China Monthly Pork Import by Source in 2009 68
Table 5, China Monthly Pork Export by Destination in 2009 69
Table 6, China Pork Balance Sheet from 2000-2010 70
Table 7, China Poultry Meat Output by Province from 2000-2009 70
Table 8, China Poultry Crop by Province from 2000-2009 72
Table 9, China Monthly Import of Poultry Meat & Edible Offal by Source in 2009 73
Table 10, China Monthly Export of Poultry Meat & Edible Offal by Source in 2009 74
Table 11, China Poultry Meat Balance Sheet from 2000-2010 75
Table 12, China Poultry Egg Output by Province from 2000-2009 75
Table 13, China Monthly Egg Export by Destination in 2009 77
Table 14, China Poultry Egg Balance Sheet from 2000-2010 77
Table 15, China Beef Output by Province from 2000-2009 78
Table 16, China Cattle Inventory by Province from 2000-2009 80
Table 17, China Cattle Crop by Province from 2000-2009 81
Table 18, China Monthly Import of Fresh and Chilled Beef by Source in 2009 82
Table 19, China Monthly Export of Fresh and Chilled Beef by Destination in 2009 83
Table 20, China Monthly Import of Frozen Beef by Source in 2009 83
Table 21, China Monthly Export of Frozen Beef by Source in 2009 84
Table 22, China Beef Balance Sheet from 2000-2010 84
Table 23, China Mutton Output by Provicne from 2000-2009 85
Table 24, Chna Sheep Inventory by Province from 2000-2009 87
Table 25, China Sheep Crop by Province from 2000-2009 88
Table 26, China Monthly Mutton Import by Source in 2009 90
Table 27, China Monthly Mutton Export by Source in 2009 90
Table 28, China Mutton Balance Sheet from 2000-2010 91
Table 29, China Monthly Average Retail Prices of Feedsttff, Manufacted Feed and Livestock Products in 2009 92

see TOC
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