Johnson & Johnson: PharmaVitae Profile

This analysis examines the historical and forecast performance for J&J in the ethical pharmaceutical sector. The profile encompasses global company strategy, portfolio and pipeline analysis and assessment of financial performance, with 1-6 year sales forecasts for key drugs. An interactive forecasting and analysis tool provides continually updated quantitative and qualitative information.

Report Highlights

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CHAPTER 1 ABOUT THIS PROFILE 2
Executive summary 2
Quarterly news update 2
Company introduction 2
Company sales 2
Company financials 2
Key products and competitors 3
Data sourcing 3
Sales data 3
Analyst consensus 3
CHAPTER 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
Key findings 4
Prescription pharmaceutical sales performance, 2001-13 5
Financial performance, 2001-13 6
Wyeth: PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 7
Strategic insight 8
Five key blockbusters will continue to define performance out to 2013... 8
...masking commercial potential of relatively strong pipeline 8
Falling costs leave the company in a strong financial position 9
SWOT analysis 11
Strengths 11
Strong financial position 11
Enbrel's insulation from generic competition 12
Potential to prolong lifecycle of key products through launch of follow-on products, Prevnar-13 and Pristiq 12
Weaknesses 12
Patent expiry of blockbuster products 12
Opportunities 13
Bapineuzumab potential to break new ground in the Alzheimer's market 13
Use cash reserves to pursue M&A activity or licensing deals 13
Threats 13
Failure to win Protonix court case 13
Failure of late-stage pipeline products to meet their potential 13
CHAPTER 3 QUARTERLY NEWS UPDATE 18
Product developments 18
Deals and alliances 19
Product deals 19
Technology deals 20
M&A activity 20
Company announcements 21
Future product milestones 22
CHAPTER 4 COMPANY INTRODUCTION 23
Key findings 23
Background 24
Key corporate developments 24
M&A history 24
Haptogen 25
Current corporate structure 26
Pharmaceuticals business unit structure 27
Prescription pharmaceuticals 27
Nutritionals 28
Consumer health 28
Animal health 28
CHAPTER 5 COMPANY SALES 29
Key findings 29
Prescription pharmaceutical sales and growth rate analysis, 2001-13 30
Product analysis 32
Product analysis, 2001-07 32
Product analysis, 2007-13 34
Therapy area analysis 36
Therapy area analysis, 2001-07 37
Therapy area analysis, 2007-13 39
Therapy area focus, 2001-13 41
Geographic analysis 42
Geographic analysis, 2001-07 43
Geographic analysis, 2007-13 44
Geographic focus, 2001-13 46
Launch/core/expiry analysis 47
Explanation of launch/core/expiry analysis 47
Launch analysis, 2007-13 48
Core analysis, 2007-13 49
Expiry analysis, 2007-13 50
Launch/core/expiry configuration, 2007-13 51
Molecule type analysis 53
Molecule type analysis, 2001-07 54
Molecule type analysis, 2007-13 55
Externalization analysis 58
Externalization analysis, 2001-07 59
Externalization analysis, 2007-13 60
CHAPTER 6 COMPANY FINANCIALS 62
Key findings 62
Reconciliation between PharmaVitae-formatted prescription pharma sales and company-reported total sales, 2001-07 63
Financial statements, 2001-07 65
Profit and loss account, 2001-07 65
Balance sheet, 2001-07 66
Operating costs and profit analysis 68
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2001-07 69
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2001-07 70
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2007-13 71
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2007-13 73
Return on capital employed analysis 75
Capital employed analysis, 2001-07 76
Return on capital employed (RoCE) analysis, 2001-07 78
Market capitalization analysis 81
Market capitalization analysis, 2001-07 81
Total shareholder returns analysis, 2001-07 82
CHAPTER 7 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS 84
Key findings 84
Overview 85
CNS 86
bapineuzumab 86
Overview 87
Sales forecast 88
Pristiq 91
Overview 92
Sales forecast 93
Product overview 93
Effexor 97
Overview 97
Sales forecast 98
Product overview 98
Infectious diseases 105
Prevnar & Prevnar-13 105
Overview 105
Sales forecast 107
Product overview 108
Tygacil 113
Overview 113
Sales forecast 114
Product overview 114
Tazocin 116
Overview 116
Sales forecast 117
Product overview 117
Inflammation & immunology 120
Enbrel 120
Overview 121
Sales forecast 122
Product overview 122
Urology & gender-specific health disorders 127
Premarin 127
Overview 127
Sales forecast 128
Product overview 128
Gastroenterology 134
Protonix 134
Overview 134
Sales forecast 135
Product overview 135
Musculoskeletal 142
Viviant/Aprela 142
Overview 143
Sales forecast 144
Product overview 144
CHAPTER 8 APPENDIX 148
R&D pipeline 148
References 149
Abbreviations 149
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Table 1: J&J - PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 7
Table 2: Key events set to shape J&J's outlook to 2013 11
Table 3: J&J key product developments, Q1 2008 23
Table 4: J&J product deals and alliances, Q1 2008 24
Table 5: J&J technology deals and alliances, Q1 2008 25
Table 6: J&J M&A activity, Q1 2008 25
Table 7: J&J company announcements,Q1 2008 25
Table 8: J&J future product milestones 2008-2010 26
Table 9: J&J product portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2001-07 37
Table 10: J&J product portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2007-13 40
Table 11: J&J therapy portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2001-07 45
Table 12: J&J therapy portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2007-13 47
Table 13: J&J portfolio overview by geographic region, sales ($m), 2001-07 53
Table 14: J&J portfolio overview by geographic region, sales ($m), 2007-13 55
Table 15: J&J launch portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 60
Table 16: J&J core portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 61
Table 17: J&J expiry portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 62
Table 18: J&J portfolio overview by molecule type ($m), 2001-07 67
Table 19: J&J product portfolio overview by molecule type ($m), 2007-13 68
Table 20: J&J product portfolio overview by source ($m), 2001-07 72
Table 21: J&J product portfolio overview by source ($m), 2007-13 73
Table 22: Total J&J sales by business unit ($m), 2001-07 78
Table 23: J&J profit and loss account ($m), 2001-07 79
Table 24: J&J balance sheet ($m), 2001-07 82
Table 25: J&J operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-07 86
Table 26: J&J operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenue), 2001-07 87
Table 27: J&J operating profit analysis by segment (% of segment sales), 2001-07 88
Table 28: J&J operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenue), 2007-13 89
Table 29: J&J operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2007-13 92
Table 30: J&J capital employed ($m), 2001-07 95
Table 31: J&J EBIT return on capital employed ($m), 2001-07 97
Table 32: J&J EBIT pre-tax return/Capital employed driver analysis ($m), 2001-07 98
Table 33: J&J market capitalization ($ billion), 2001-07 101
Table 34: J&J total shareholder returns (annual %), 2001-07 104
Table 35: Key products overview, 2007-13 107
Table 36: Risperdal: overview 108
Table 37: Risperdal franchise: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 109
Table 38: Invega: overview 113
Table 39: Invega franchise: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 114
Table 40: Remicade: overview 117
Table 41: Remicade: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 118
Table 42: Procrit: overview 121
Table 43: Procrit: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 122
Table 44: Topamax: overview 124
Table 45: Topamax: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 125
Table 46: Rivaroxaban: overview 127
Table 47: Rivaroxaban: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 128
Table 48: Velcade: overview 130
Table 49: Velcade: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 131
Table 50: Prezista: overview 133
Table 51: Prezista: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 134
Table 52: J&J's late-stage R&D pipeline 136
Table 53: J&J contributions to year-on-year growth (%), 2001-07 138
Figure 1: J&J prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2001-13 5
Figure 2: J&J financial performance ($m), 2001-13 6
Figure 3: Lifecycle management strategies boost key J&J franchises, 2001-13 ($m) 9
Figure 4: J&J's strategic options for growth 13
Figure 5: SWOT analysis of J&J 15
Figure 6: J&J company structure 30
Figure 7: Recent & major M&A/ divestment activity, J&J 31
Figure 8: Johnson & Johnson prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2001-13 35
Figure 9: J&J key sales growth driver & resistors ($m), 2001-07 38
Figure 10: J&J key sales growth drivers & resistors ($m), 2007-13 41
Figure 11: J&J prescription pharmaceutical sales by therapy area ($m), 2001-13 44
Figure 12: J&J prescription pharma sales by therapy area, (% of total), 2001-13 50
Figure 13: J&J prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region ($m), 2001-13 52
Figure 14: J&J drivers and resistors by geographic region, sales ($m), 2001-07 53
Figure 15: J&J drivers and resistors by geographic region, sales ($m), 2007-13 55
Figure 16: J&J prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region (% of total), 2001-13 57
Figure 17: J&J launch/core/expiry configuration ($m), 2007-13 64
Figure 18: J&J prescription pharmaceutical sales by molecule type ($m), 2001-13 66
Figure 19: J&J growth drivers & resistors by molecule type ($m), 2007-13 69
Figure 20: J&J prescription pharmaceutical sales by source ($m), 2001-13 71
Figure 21: J&J growth drivers & resistors by source ($m), 2001-07 72
Figure 22: J&J growth drivers & resistors by source ($m), 2007-13 75
Figure 23: J&J operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-13 84
Figure 24: J&J operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenue), 2001-13 91
Figure 25: J&J return on capital employed, EBIT margin and capital turnover, 2001-07 94
Figure 26: Return on capital employed formula 99
Figure 27: J&J market capitalization ($ billion), 2001-07 102
Figure 28: J&J total shareholder returns (annual %), 2001-07 105
Figure 29: US atypical antipsychotic market share by USD, 2003-07 110
Figure 30: J&J's antipsychotic franchise, global sales ($m), 2003-13 115
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