Trends in Disruptive Consumer Technologies: Emerging innovation and the key drivers of change

There are numerous examples throughout modern history of disruptive technologies appearing, apparently from nowhere, to displace existing technologies and the industries and vendors that grew up around them. In the consumer technology space, the phenomenal adoption of mobile phones springs quickly to mind, but equally innovations such as the desktop computer, video recorders, the iPod and iTunes, flat-panel TVs, digital/personal video recorders (DVRs/PVRs) and Internet TV have caused – and continue to cause – disruption in markets and shifted the balance of power in entire industries. A number of rapidly evolving trends, technological advances and consumer behaviors are changing the shape of consumer technology markets, and in turn combining to create new consumer technology product classes and markets. As a result, a number of traditional business models are under threat.

Key features of this report

• An assessment of some of the factors that combine to create the ‘tipping point’ for new consumer technologies.
• An in-depth analysis of the current state of the tipping point factors.
• Provides market sizing and opportunity statistics for consumer technology.
• Assesses which consumer technologies are potentially open to disruption.
Scope of this report
• Gain insight into how disruption occurs.
• Understand how four factors combine to create a tipping point for new consumer technologies.
• Understand the consumer and technical trends that are shaping the evolution of technology advances.
• Gain competitive advantage by understanding how disruption occurs and which consumer technology sectors are currently most threatened by disruption.
• Understand the potential future market opportunities for new and disruptive technologies.

Key Market Issues

• How can organizations protect themselves from disruptive technologies?
• How can organizations predict disruption and turn it into competitive advantage?
• Which four factors combine to create the tipping point for new consumer technologies?
• What are the main technical and consumer trends that are shaping the future of consumer technologies?
• Where and how will disruption happen next?

Key findings from this report

• Disruptions not only displace technologies, they also fundamentally shift the balance of power in entire industries and, often, spell the end for established market leading vendors.
• There is nothing disruptive per se about any new technology; rather disruption comes from the manner in which the industry leaders and players manage it.
• There are four factors that combine to create a tipping point for new consumer technologies.
• Lifestyle and consumer trends are shaping the evolution of consumer technologies.
• Consumption of all media types is increasing across the world.

Key questions answered

• What characteristics are common to disruptive technologies?
• How can organizations assess the threat of disruption and how do they turn that knowledge into new market opportunities?
• How are consumer trends shaping the evolution of consumer technology?
• Which factors combine to create a ‘tipping point’ for consumer technologies?
• Where is disruption most likely to occur next?


Report Highlights

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Table of Contents
Disruptive Technology in Consumer Electronics
Executive summary 8
Anticipating disruption 8
Disruptive trends 9
Enablers of disruption 10
Technology areas facing disruption 11
Chapter 1 Introduction and scope of report 14
Introduction 14
Who is this report for? 15
Chapter 2 Anticipating disruption 18
Summary 18
Introduction 19
What is a disruptive technology? 19
Examples of disruptive technologies 19
Defining disruptive patterns 21
The evolution of a disruptive technology 22
Characteristics of a disruptive technology 23
Drivers and inhibitors of disruption 26
Intrinsic and extrinsic factors 28
Assessing the ‘tipping point’ for disruption 30
Shifting consumer behavior and media consumption patterns 32
Attitudes to work-life balance 32
Growing impact of the Internet 34
Embracing technology and connectivity 35
Changing media consumption habits 37
The ‘mobile lifestyle’ 38
Cost of technology 39
Technology performance 40
Enablers of disruption 41
Conclusions 43
Chapter 3 Disruptive trends 46
Summary 46
Introduction 47
Disruptive trends 47
Consumption patterns: Time and location-shifting 47
Trend towards customization 49
Trend towards mobility and mobile technology 53
Trend towards social networking 55
Growth of social networks 56
Types of social networking sites 60
Trend towards cloud computing 60
Technology business models 63
The concept of ‘good enough’ 63
Best-in-class technology 65
Conclusions 67
Chapter 4 Enablers of disruption 70
Summary 70
Introduction 71
Enablers of disruption 72
Content delivery models 72
New ‘broadcasting’ models 76
Mobile TV 77
Commoditization of older technologies 78
Broadband access and data transfer speeds 80
Conclusions 84
Chapter 5 Technology areas facing disruption 86
Summary 86
Introduction 87
Home entertainment 88
Digital video recorders 88
Internet radio and music streaming 91
Internet TV 94
Three-dimensional (3D) TV and Internet 96
3DTV 96
3D Internet 99
Portable technology 101
Netbooks / mobile internet 101
Mobile applications 103
Mobile gaming 105
Flash storage 107
Ethical technologies 109
‘Green gadgets’ 109
Natural user interfaces 113
Gaming 113
Multi-touch screens 115
Index 119

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List of Figures
Figure 2.1: The evolution of a disruptive technology 23
Figure 2.2: Characteristics of an early-stage disruptive technology 24
Figure 2.3: Simple checklist for assessing potentially disruptive technology 25
Figure 2.4: Examples of drivers and inhibitors of disruption 27
Figure 2.5: Interaction of intrinsic and extrinsic factors for disruption 29
Figure 2.6: Assessing the ‘tipping point’ for disruption in consumer technology 30
Figure 2.7: Average time spent working and on the Internet per person, per day (by country, 2012) 33
Figure 2.8: Connective technology drivers and inhibitors 36
Figure 2.9: Average time spent consuming media per day, hours (by country, 2002-2012) 38
Figure 3.10: Apple App Store downloads by category 51
Figure 3.11: Global mobile subscribers and penetration (bn, %), 2004-2008 54
Figure 3.12: Global iPod sales and units sold, 2006-2008 55
Figure 3.13: Global social networking revenue ($m), 2006-2012 57
Figure 3.14: Global social networking memberships, 2006-2012 59
Figure 4.15: Examples of disruption enablers 72
Figure 4.16: Six steps of commoditization 79
Figure 4.17: Average Internet connection speed by country, 2009 83
Figure 5.18: DVR household growth by region (m), 2007-2013 89
Figure 5.19: Global IPTV subscribers, 2009-2013 (m) 95
Figure 5.20: Global 3DTV market size, 2010-2015 ($bn) 97
Figure 5.21: Global netbook market size, 2008-2012 (millions of units shipped) 102
Figure 5.22: Global mobile gaming market size ($bn), 2003-2013 105
List of Tables
Table 2.1: Examples of disruptive technologies 20
Table 2.2: Intrinsic and extrinsic factors for disruptive technologies 28
Table 2.3: Average time spent working and on the Internet per day (2012) 34
Table 2.4: Internet users and total % of population, by continent, 2008 35
Table 2.5: Average time spent consuming media per day, hours (by country, 2002-2012) 37
Table 3.6: Global mobile subscribers and penetration (bn, %), 2004-2008 54
Table 3.7: Global social networking revenue ($m), 2006-2012 57
Table 3.8: Global social networking memberships, 2006-2012 59
Table 4.9: Internet speeds available in Europe, 2009 80
Table 4.10: Internet speeds available in the Americas, 2009 81
Table 4.11: Internet speeds available in the Middle East, 2009 81
Table 4.12: Internet speeds available in Asia Pacific, 2009 82
Table 5.13: DVR household growth by region (m), 2007-2013 88

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